Ukraine vs Georgia Prediction, Stats, H2H, Odds & Betting tips

The battle for the top spot in Nations League Group B1 intensifies this week as Ukraine hosts Georgia in a crucial UEFA Nations League clash on Friday. With instability lingering at home, The Blue and Yellows, currently languishing at the bottom of Group B1, will face off against the group leaders, The Crusaders from Poland. This match is pivotal for both teams: Ukraine aims to climb out of the relegation zone and avoid the looming threat of dropping to League C, while Georgia seeks to build on their impressive recent form to solidify their position at the top of the group.

At the outset of the season, Ukraine’s ambition was clear—to return to League A. However, their campaign has faltered, leaving fans concerned about the possibility of relegation. Entering this match, Ukraine has failed to secure a point in their last two outings, ending with a narrow 3-2 defeat in the Czech Republic. This marks a significant downturn from their previous performances, putting their nine-match undefeated streak against Georgia on the line after nine years since their last encounter.

In stark contrast, Georgia has emerged as one of Europe’s most improved teams in recent months. Following a surprising run to the knockout stages of Euro 2024, Georgia has carried this momentum into the Nations League, amassing six points from two victories in Group B1. Their only setback in the last five matches came against European champions Spain, underscoring their resilience and competitive edge. In their latest fixture, Georgia secured a 1-0 win against Albania, marking their third triumph in the last four matches and significantly boosting their confidence. Notably, Georgia remains unbeaten in their last ten away matches in the Nations League, adding to their formidable reputation.

This matchup promises to be an ultra-competitive encounter, with Ukraine desperate to reverse their fortunes and Georgia eager to extend their impressive form. As both teams vie for crucial points to advance in the competition, fans can anticipate a thrilling contest filled with tactical battles, standout performances, and high-stakes drama. Read on for our comprehensive prediction, statistics, head-to-head analysis, odds, and betting tips for the Ukraine vs Georgia clash.

Ukraine vs Georgia Important H2H Prediction Stats

We preview the game at Olimpiyskiy National Sports Complex, where Ukraine will host Georgia in a pivotal UEFA Nations League Group B1 clash. After analyzing past head-to-head stats between the two teams, as well as their performances against other opponents, the mustwinteams.com supercomputer has made its predictions about the game, which we will indicate below.

Recent Meetings

• Last Match: The last time Ukraine and Georgia faced each other was on June 9, 2015, with Georgia at home, and Ukraine securing a 2-1 victory.

Head-to-Head Record

• Total Matches Played: In their history, Ukraine and Georgia have faced each other 4 times.
  • Ukraine Wins: 2
  • Draws: 2
  • Georgia Wins: 0

Ukraine leads the head-to-head record against Georgia, having won two of their last four encounters, with the remaining two resulting in draws.

Key Players to Watch

• Ukraine:
  • Top Assist Provider: Vitaliy Mykolenko leads Ukraine with 1 assist this season. Georgia will need to keep him well-marked to prevent him from creating goal-scoring opportunities.
  • Disciplinary Record: Roman Yaremchuk has received 1 yellow card this season, the most in the team. His discipline will be important to avoid conceding dangerous set-pieces.
• Georgia:
  • Top Scorer: Giorgi Kochorashvili is Georgia’s leading goal scorer this season with 2 goals. Ukraine’s defense will need to keep him under control to prevent scoring chances.
  • Disciplinary Record: Otar Kiteishvili has received 1 yellow card this season, making him a player to watch regarding potential disciplinary actions.

Scoring and Conceding Patterns

• Ukraine:
  • Most Likely to Score: Between the 30th and 45th minutes, having scored 33.3% of their goals during this period. This suggests that Ukraine often finds the net during the early to mid stages of the match.
• Georgia:
  • Most Likely to Concede: Between the 60th and 75th minutes, with 60% of goals against occurring in this timeframe. This indicates a potential vulnerability for Georgia in the later stages of the game.

Possession Statistics

• Ukraine: Averages 58.00% possession per match, indicating a balanced approach between offense and defense, maintaining control of the ball and building up play.
• Georgia: Averages 47.50% possession per match, suggesting a more defensive or counter-attacking style, relying on quick transitions rather than sustained ball control.

Corner Averages

• Ukraine: Averages 6.50 corners per match, reflecting their ability to create offensive opportunities and pressure the opposition’s defense.
• Georgia: Averages 2.50 corners per match, indicating fewer attacking activities leading to corner situations.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Statistics

• Ukraine: BTTS has occurred in 100% of their matches this season, showing a strong tendency for both teams to find the net.
• Georgia: BTTS rate is 50%, suggesting that half of their matches have seen both teams score.

Betting Insights

If you are confident in your analysis and wish to place a bet, consider the following factors:

• Historical Advantage: Ukraine maintains a strong head-to-head record against Georgia, leading with two wins in their last four matches. However, Georgia’s recent improvements and their unbeaten streak in away matches in the Nations League could challenge Ukraine’s dominance.
• Goal Timings:
  • Ukraine’s Scoring Trend: With most of Ukraine’s goals scored between the 30th and 45th minutes, consider betting on Ukraine to score during this period.
  • Georgia’s Conceding Vulnerability: Georgia is most likely to concede between the 60th and 75th minutes, providing an opportunity for Ukraine to capitalize in the latter half.
• Possession and Corners:
  • Ukraine’s higher possession and corner averages suggest they will dominate the game’s tempo and create more goal-scoring opportunities.
  • Georgia’s lower possession and corner counts indicate a potential defensive setup or reliance on counter-attacks.
• Both Teams to Score (BTTS):
  • With Ukraine having a 100% BTTS rate and Georgia at 50%, there is a reasonable chance both teams will score in this match.
  • Recommendation: Betting on BTTS – Yes aligns with Ukraine’s consistent scoring and Georgia’s ability to find the net.
• Corners Market:
  • Ukraine averages 6.50 corners, while Georgia averages 2.50. Betting on Over 5.5 corners could provide value given Ukraine’s attacking activities.
• Disciplinary Markets:
  • Players like Roman Yaremchuk and Otar Kiteishvili, with disciplinary records, could lead to bookings. Betting on the total number of yellow/red cards might be an option for bettors interested in this market.

For the latest odds and to place your bets, check out the pre-match and live odds in the Matchstat odds section, where you can also view live coverage of the match.

Ukraine Vs Georgia Last Match Result and Stats

Ukraine Vs Georgia Season Stats

Ukraine vs Georgia Prediction

Our prediction for the Ukraine vs Georgia match is: Georgia to win.

Probability Breakdown

• Ukraine Win
  • Probability: 46.27%
  • Best Odds: 2.3 at Ladbrokes
  • Analysis: Ukraine holds a significant advantage with a higher probability of winning, supported by their robust possession statistics and consistent goal-scoring record this season. Their historical dominance in head-to-head encounters also bolsters their chances.
• Draw
  • Probability: 22.86%
  • Best Odds: 3.42 at 1xbet
  • Analysis: A draw remains a plausible outcome given the competitive nature of both teams. If Ukraine can maintain their defensive solidity and Georgia capitalizes on their scoring opportunities, a stalemate is possible.
• Georgia Win
  • Probability: 30.87%
  • Best Odds: 3.6 at Bet365
  • Analysis: Despite being the underdogs, Georgia has shown remarkable improvement and resilience, especially following their impressive run to the Euro 2024 knockout stages. Their unbeaten record in away matches within the Nations League adds an element of unpredictability, making a Georgia victory a viable, albeit less likely, outcome.

Reasons Behind the Prediction

Georgia’s Recent Form and Confidence

• Improved Performance: Georgia has been one of Europe’s most improved teams in recent months, highlighted by their surprise run to the Euro 2024 knockout stages. This momentum carries into the Nations League, where they’ve secured two wins out of their last four matches.
• Unbeaten Away Record: Georgia hasn’t lost in their last ten away matches in the Nations League, demonstrating their ability to perform under pressure and adapt to different environments.
• Key Players Returning: With Alexander Isak available (assuming no injury updates), Georgia’s attacking threats remain formidable. Additionally, Viktor Gyökeres continues to be a significant goal-scoring threat.

Ukraine’s Defensive Strengths and Challenges

• Strong Defense: Ukraine boasts a 100% BTTS rate, indicating that they consistently score while maintaining defensive integrity. Their ability to control possession with an average of 58.00% suggests they can dominate the midfield.
• Injury Concerns: Missing key players like Ivan Schranz could impact Ukraine’s offensive capabilities. However, their defense remains solid, having not conceded in their previous matches.
• Scoring Patterns: Ukraine tends to score early, with 33.3% of their goals coming between the 30th and 45th minutes. This early scoring can set the tone for the match, potentially limiting Georgia’s offensive opportunities.

Disciplinary Factors

• Key Players Under Scrutiny: Both teams have players with disciplinary records that could influence the game’s dynamics. Roman Yaremchuk for Ukraine and Otar Kiteishvili for Georgia need to maintain discipline to avoid penalties that could tilt the balance in their favor.

Betting Tips

• Georgia to Win
  • Recommendation: Betting on Georgia to win aligns with our prediction and offers a higher payout given their underdog status.
  • Rationale: Georgia’s improved form, confidence from recent successes, and unbeaten away record make them a compelling choice despite the lower probability.
• Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes
  • Recommendation: With Ukraine having a 100% BTTS rate and Georgia at 50%, there’s a reasonable chance both teams will find the net.
  • Rationale: Ukraine’s consistent scoring coupled with Georgia’s offensive threats increases the likelihood of both teams scoring.
• Over 2.5 Goals
  • Recommendation: Considering both teams’ goal-scoring abilities and defensive vulnerabilities, betting on over 2.5 goals could offer value.
  • Rationale: Ukraine’s early scoring tendencies and Georgia’s improved offensive form suggest an open and high-scoring match.

Betting Advice

• Compare Odds Across Bookmakers
  • Georgia Win: Best odds of 3.6 at Bet365.
  • Draw: Best odds of 3.42 at 1xbet.
  • Ukraine Win: Best odds of 2.3 at Ladbrokes.
  • Recommendation: Shop around multiple bookmakers to secure the best possible odds, maximizing potential returns on your bets.
• Risk Management
  • Set a Betting Budget: Always gamble responsibly by wagering only what you can afford to lose.
  • Diversify Bets: Spread your bets across different markets (e.g., match result, BTTS, over/under goals) to mitigate risk.
• Stay Informed
  • Team News: Monitor for any last-minute injuries, suspensions, or tactical changes that could impact the match outcome.
  • Weather Conditions: Adverse weather can influence play styles and scoring opportunities.

This matchup between Ukraine and Georgia is poised to be a thrilling encounter with significant implications for both teams in the Nations League. While Ukraine enters the match with a historical advantage and strong defensive records, Georgia’s recent form and unbeaten away streak provide a substantial challenge. Betting on Georgia to win coupled with Both Teams to Score – Yes aligns with the current trends and offers a balanced risk-reward scenario. As both teams strive to achieve their respective goals—Ukraine aiming to rise from the bottom of Group B1 and Georgia seeking to maintain their top position—fans can expect a competitive and engaging match filled with tactical prowess and exciting football action.